A Behavioral Economics Analysis Of The Exploitation Video
Misbehaving: the making of behavioural economicsPity: A Behavioral Economics Analysis Of The Exploitation
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The focus of this paper is the problem of optimal investment decisions. Under the standard theory of expected utility, an agent who must allocate his or her wealth between a safe and a risky asset will buy some of the asset if the price is less than the expected present value. Conversely the agent will sell the asset short when the price is greater than the expected value. Our main theorem is a generalization of this result to the case of uncertainty.
We also provide a definition of an increase in perceived uncertainty, and analyze the effects of an increase on the investment decision. The problem of making decisions under uncertainty has been of central importance to economics and statistics throughout the development of these disciplines.
The expectedutility theory, which owes its axiomatic development to von Neumann and Morgensterninitiates from the work of Bernoulli Savage has made a persuasive case that rational behavior necessarily entails actions represented by such a utility function and by a prior subjective probability distribution over possible events.
For example, an agent gambling on the toss of a Economivs about which he knows nothing may behave qualitatively differently from when he knows whether the coin is biased and if so by how much.
Nevertheless, for both theoretical and empirical reasons economists have developed models which generalize the expected-utility model. One group of these models is based on a distinction between risk and uncertainty: the idea was proposed by Knight and has been further explored by Ellsberg and Bewley among others.
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In the series Economkcs papers referred to above, Schmeidler and Gilboa have given an axiomatic development of a model which incorporates this distinction. Based on a weakening of the independence axiom, the model entails maximizing expected utility with a nonadditive probability measure. It should be stressed that the probabilities, together with the utility function, provide a representation of behavior. They are not objective probabilities.]
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