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Scenario planning , also called scenario thinking or scenario analysis , is a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. The original method was that a group of analysts would generate simulation games for policy makers. The methods combine known facts about the future, such as demographics , geography , military , political , industrial information, and mineral reserves , with key driving forces identified by considering social, technical, economic, environmental, and political STEEP trends. In business applications, that sole emphasis on understanding the behavior of opponents was reduced shifting more toward a game against nature. Scenario planning may involve aspects of systems thinking , specifically the recognition that many factors may combine in complex ways to create sometime surprising futures due to non-linear feedback loops. The method also allows the inclusion of factors that are difficult to formalize, such as novel insights about the future, deep shifts in values, unprecedented regulations or inventions. Critics of using a subjective and heuristic methodology to deal with uncertainty and complexity argue that the technique has not been examined rigorously, nor influenced sufficiently by scientific evidence. They caution against using such methods to "predict" based on what can be described as arbitrary themes and "forecasting techniques". Planning Methods And Methods Of Planning

Photo courtesy Eva Burk.

The time is right for Arctic communities to start thinking about growing food year round. Eva Burk of Nenana is just the person to help make that happen. Her plan is to develop a sustainable business model that will do two things: first, reduce fire hazard in Alaska by using spruce beetle-killed trees as fuel for biomass-heated greenhouses; second, grow food in these greenhouses year around in Arctic communities.

Education is included in the overall plan to train community members so that all these projects can remain sustainable locally. The biomass greenhouse is still very much in the Planning Methods And Methods Of Planning stage, but she expects other parts of the project will start being implemented in And she intends to begin in her hometown of Nenana, about 50 miles south of Fairbanks.

The hope is to start building high tunnels that would cover raised beds for growing Methosd. A garden manager will be hired. She also hopes to work with the school to include this new agriculture project in the school curriculum. That has been successful in other communities source said.

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She wants to add local farmers to the collaboration as well. She envisions partnerships between tribes and Alaska Native corporations to promote tribal and shareholder development for building, Plnning and maintaining the greenhouses. Burk was working in the oil and gas industry in Anchorage a decade ago when she started thinking about this. Her focus shifted from environmental impact statements on big resource extraction projects to local food, energy and water sustainability projects.

Everyone would talk about the projects going on. Now, a biomass plant is in the process of being built in Nenana and the largest solar farm in Alaska is proposed to be constructed just south of Nenana as well.]