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We use cookies essential for this site to function well. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Learn about our use of cookies, and collaboration with select social media Ndw trusted analytics partners here Learn more about cookies, Opens in new tab. The technology-driven world in which we live is a world filled with promise but also challenges.

Cars that drive themselves, machines that read X-rays, and algorithms that respond to customer-service inquiries are all manifestations of powerful new forms of automation. Yet even as these technologies increase productivity and improve our lives, their use will substitute for some work activities humans currently perform—a development that has sparked much public concern. The results reveal a rich mosaic of potential shifts in occupations in the years ahead, with important implications for workforce skills and wages.

Our key finding is that while there may be enough work to maintain full employment to under most scenarios, the transitions will be very challenging—matching or even exceeding the scale of shifts out of agriculture and manufacturing we have seen in the past. We previously found that about half the activities people What Does It Mean For A New paid to do globally could theoretically be automated using currently demonstrated technologies. Very few occupations—less than 5 percent—consist of activities that can be fully automated.

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However, in about 60 percent of occupations, at least one-third of the constituent activities could be automated, implying substantial workplace transformations and changes for all workers. While technical feasibility of automation is important, it is not the only factor that will influence the pace and extent of automation adoption. Other factors include the cost of developing and deploying automation solutions for specific uses in the workplace, the labor-market dynamics including quality and quantity of labor and associated wagesthe benefits of automation beyond labor substitution, and regulatory and social acceptance.

Taking these factors into account, our new research estimates that between almost zero and 30 percent of the hours worked globally could be automated bydepending on the speed of adoption. We mainly use the midpoint of our scenario range, which is automation of 15 percent of current activities. Results differ significantly by countryreflecting the mix of activities currently performed by workers and prevailing wage rates. The potential impact of automation on employment varies by occupation and sector see interactive above. Activities most susceptible to automation include physical ones in predictable environments, such as operating machinery and preparing fast food. Collecting and processing data are two other categories of activities that increasingly can be done better and faster with machines.

This could displace large amounts of labor—for instance, in mortgage origination, paralegal work, accounting, and back-office transaction processing.

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It is important to note, however, that even when some tasks are automated, employment in those occupations may not decline but rather workers may perform new tasks. Automation will have a lesser effect on jobs that involve managing people, applying expertise, and social interactions, where machines are unable to match visit web page performance for now.

Jobs in unpredictable environments—occupations such as gardeners, plumbers, or providers of child- and eldercare—will also generally see less automation bybecause they are technically difficult to automate and often command relatively lower wages, which makes automation a less attractive business proposition. Workers displaced by automation are easily identified, while new jobs that are created indirectly from technology are less visible and spread across different sectors and geographies. We model some potential What Does It Mean For A New of new labor demand that may spur job creation toeven net of automation. For the first three trends, we model only a trendline scenario based on current spending and investment trends observed across countries.]