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On Jan. The reports anticipate that China's population will hit a peak of 1. In light of this news, Stratfor is revisiting one of our foundational analyses from , in which forecast China's impending demographic crisis and outline the contributing factors. In recent years, the Chinese government has gradually relaxed aspects of its one-child policy in an attempt to combat slowing population growth, but so far, progress in that area has trailed far behind the rate of decline in population growth. Chinese society is on the verge of a structural transformation even more profound than the long and painful project of economic rebalancing, which the Communist Party is anxiously beginning to undertake. China's population is aging more rapidly than it is getting rich, giving rise to a great demographic imbalance with important implications for the Party's efforts to transform the Chinese economy and preserve its own power in the coming decade. Two reports in Chinese media highlight different aspects of China's unfolding demographic crunch. The Ministry of Education reported Aug.The Demography Of Aging Population In China Video
Will China’s 500 million elderly cripple the country? The Demography Of Aging Population In ChinaSend MSN Feedback
The figures signal a potential economic and political catastrophe for China's future as it contends with a smaller working-age population who will have to support a fast-growing aging society. Get the latest insights and analysis from our Global Impact newsletter on the big stories originating in China.
Experts say birth rate figures will only shrink further, and over the next five years, China's total population will enter the range of zero growth, meaning the annual gap between births and deaths will shrink to only 1 million, even though the total population will remain above 1. This shrinking working-age population would put pressure on government plans to boost economic expansion. While national population figures won't be released until April, in China's birth rate fell to its lowest in 70 years, despite the government ending its one-child policy in A report issued in January by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warned that while the one-child policy may have achieved its original purpose of slowing population growth, it had created new challenges for the government, The New York Times reported.
It said the declining fertility rate and an increase in life expectancy meant there would be too few workers to support a growing aging population.
China is not the only east Asian country suffering from declining births and an aging population. Last year, South Korea's population dropped for the first time on record. Rapidly aging populations have put pressure on governments in Asia, as the potential for growth eases amid shrinking labor supply and the burden of caring for the elderly increases.
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In theory, countries can offset the impact by improving labor productivity and capital investment, but that is "a gravity-defying act," said economists from French bank Natixis in a note in December. The bank estimated that India could overtake China as the world's most populated Demogtaphy in Many women are delaying motherhood, having fewer babies or remaining childless due to the financial burden of childcare and The Demography Of Aging Population In China costs, as well as a shift in cultural expectations. China just issued a full ban on phones in schools.
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