Analysis Of Al Shabaab s Origins - amazonia.fiocruz.br

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Talks with the Islamist militants may be necessary but they won't be easy. With the US planning to withdraw troops and the African Union reaffirming its commitment to draw down its mission in Somalia by the end of , the need to negotiate with al-Shabaab is clear. Even without these soldiers pulling out, Somalia's conflict has been ongoing for almost two decades and resembles another "forever war". No party has enough of a military advantage to defeat the other and there is currently no prospect of this changing anytime soon. As such, talks with the Islamist militants must form part of any feasible exit strategy and long-term solution to Somalia's conflict. However, this will not be straightforward. In holding talks, there are some hard truths that will need to be addressed.

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Analysis Of Al Shabaab s Origins

Talks with the Islamist militants may be necessary but they won't be easy.

With the US planning to withdraw troops and the African Union reaffirming its commitment to draw down its mission in Somalia by the end ofthe need to Shabaqb with al-Shabaab is clear. Even without these soldiers pulling out, Somalia's conflict has been ongoing for almost two decades and resembles another "forever war". No party has enough of a military advantage to defeat the other and there is currently no prospect of this changing anytime soon. As such, talks with the Islamist militants must form part of any feasible exit strategy and long-term solution to Somalia's conflict.

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However, this will not be straightforward. In holding talks, there are some hard truths Ap will need to be addressed. Al-Shabaab's position of strength. The first is that al-Shabaab will come to the table in a position of relative strength.

Despite a long history of factionalism, the militant group is still the most unified body in the country.

Somalia: The Hard Truths of Negotiating With Al-Shabaab

It has proven itself to be resilient in the face of military operations, continuing to maintain freedom of movement throughout the most of Somalia and regularly conducting attacks in even the most secure parts of the capital Mogadishu. The Somali Federal Government, on Analysis Of Al Shabaab s Origins other hand, faces serious divides. There are rifts between the central and regional administrations, consistent turnover of high-ranking officials, and deep political and personal divisions.

There is also particular uncertainty ahead of the presidential election currently scheduled for early The previous ballot, marred by allegations of vote buying and foreign interference, was dubbed by some analysts as " one of the most fraudulent political events in Somalia's history ". It is unclear what the outcome of the contest will be, but it is unlikely to unify the government enough to Shabazb al-Shabaab's relative strength.

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In the meantime, the militants will be reluctant to start serious negotiations with officials who may not be in those positions much longer and could reasonably vie for a "wait and see" approach. Al-Shabaab members may have little reason to trust the current federal administration anyway.

InMuktar Robowa former al-Shabaab leader who defected, was arrested and extradited to Mogadishu where he remains in custody. Many believe the locally popular figure was seized because the federal government feared he would win an upcoming regional election for president over their preferred candidate.

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Until the election, negotiations with al-Shabaab are not a priority for many Somali politicians. Instead, they are more pre-occupied with internal conflicts between the federal and regional governments. While military forces continue to fight al-Shabaab, particularly in Lower Juba and Lower and Middle Shabelle Regions, other parts of the security apparatus have shifted their focus towards domestic disputes.]